KELLY Superforecasting is where your forecasts meet reality.

Use this app to make a clear prediction, put a probability on it, inspect KELLY's probability, define how reality will settle it, and learn from the score later.

Your forecast is yours. It does not become KELLY's ground truth.

The basic loop

Ask or choose a forecast question.
Enter your probability.
Compare it with KELLY's probability.
Read the evidence, base rate, and uncertainty.
Define the resolution rule.
Come back after reality settles it.

Good forecast questions

Will this event happen by a specific date?
Will this market close above a specific level?
Will this project finish on time?
Will a measurable outcome improve or worsen?
What evidence would change KELLY's probability?

What to inspect

KELLY forecast vs your forecast.
Base rates and historical matches.
Causal chain and counterfactual pressure.
Bias and overconfidence warnings.
Resolution rule and later score.

What not to do

Do not treat a forecast as certainty.
Do not treat your forecast as KELLY's truth.
Do not skip the resolution rule.
Do not call skill before enough settled scores exist.
Do not use this as professional advice.

Try a live preview

See how KELLY responds to a sample forecast question. No account required — previews are not saved.

Sample question

Will US CPI year-over-year inflation print below 3% at the next monthly release?

Example context probability: 42% (read-only in preview)